Why Grealish To Everton Can Work, And Why It Might Not
Have Everton learned their lessons?
For several years, Everton have punched well below their weight. Mainly through necessity, it must be said.
Previous Director of Football Kevin Thelwell operated on a shoestring budget — albeit, do not be fooled into thinking Everton did not make big-money signings under his tenure, but generally speaking, the Toffees operated within extremely tight constraints.
Now, though, the shackles are, at least somewhat, off.
The loan signing of Jack Grealish from Manchester City, in a deal that could be worth around £12million, inclusive of paying the majority of the playmaker’s wages, marks a stark departure from the austerity measures of the past few years.
It is a signing that has excited many among the Everton fanbase, though it’s fair to say there are some question marks.
Here, we examine what works, and what doesn’t, about Jack Grealish signing for Everton.
WHY IT WORKS
“[The manager] wants me to be creative, and be the way I was before and have no fear. Sometimes you might lose the ball, but I want to play the killer pass and have that end product. If I can do that I’ll be able to help the club.”
-Jack Grealish to Everton TV
Everton were the Premier League’s fourth-lowest goalscorers last season, and they also registered the fourth-lowest expected goals (xG) figure — 42.4. Only the three relegated teams had fewer shots and fewer shots on target than the Toffees.
So, it’s safe to say, Everton need to add cutting edge and, vitally, chance creation — especially in open play.
They have signed Carlos Alcaraz on a permanent deal, but at 22 he is still raw and can be inconsistent. Iliman Ndiaye was Everton’s top scorer last season, and is an excellent all-round attacker. Yet despite having been a creative fulcrum during his time at Sheffield United, Ndiaye was not particularly impactful in that regard for Everton last season, and didn’t manage to register a single assist. His chance creation also tends to come more from his excellent dribbling and ball-carrying ability, rather than an eye for a killer pass or cross.
Dwight McNeil has shouldered much of the burden when it comes to creating chances over the past couple of years, especially under Sean Dyche. But the calibre of chances he creates, particularly from open play, is inconsistent.
The numbers back this up.
Alcaraz was Everton’s leading chance creator from open play per 90 in the league last season, at 1.6. McNeil ranked second with 1.4, ahead of Jack Harrison (1.2) and Jesper Lindstrøm (0.9) — both of whom have now left. Abdoulaye Doucoure, playing as a makeshift number 10, managed 0.9 too, ahead of Ndiaye’s 0.7.
In comparison, Grealish — who it must be said, played fewer Premier League minutes than any of those players listed above, created 2.9 open-play chances per 90.
Even over the last year, when his gametime has been limited, Grealish ranks in the 92nd percentile of attacking midfielders and wingers in Europe’s top five leagues for shot-creating actions per 90.
It must be noted that City have much more of the ball than Everton and better players to make runs and create the space for a player like Grealish to make things happen. But the step up in creative quality is huge.
The cost of this deal, which we will touch on later in this piece, has been the major, decisive talking point. At a reported £12m, it is certainly steep, but when you put it into perspective, Everton spent around £10m last season on the loan fees and wages for Harrison and Lindstrøm, who managed one goal and one assist between them. Grealish’s goal involvements last term were particularly not impressive, but had he played more, the underlying metrics suggest they would have improved.
“Playing the extra pass” was an element of Grealish’s play that Pep Guardiola often lauded, especially during the England international’s first couple of years at Man City — in particular during the 2022-23 campaign, when he was an integral part of that treble-winning team.
A player to keep hold of the ball, retain possession and get Everton up the pitch has been badly lacking in recent seasons, and too often they have reverted to a hoofball approach or asked Ndiaye to do it all on his own. Grealish, on his day, is one of the best in the business at doing that.
He is also determined to get back into international contention ahead of next year’s World Cup, and so will be hungry to make this move work.
It is only four years ago that City smashed the British transfer record to sign Grealish for £100m, and while it is fair to say Grealish is probably at his lowest ebb, this seems like it could truly be the ideal time and place for it to click again. Will he ever be a £100m player again? Of course not, and it is doubtful Everton would come anywhere close to the reported £50m buy option, either, but football is about fun, creating chances and trying to score goals — Grealish brings that, for a club that has too often been starved of it.
WHY IT MIGHT NOT WORK
The main element here is simple: the cost.
It is a huge amount of money for what is essentially a 10-month loan — £1.2m per month for a 29-year-old, who turns 30 in September, and in the last two years has missed plenty of matches through either injury or a lack of form.
Ultimately, Guardiola lost confidence and trust in Grealish over the last two campaigns, culminating in him missing the Club World Cup, and Grealish has to take his share of the blame for that.
His injury issues have not been helped by optics, either. Grealish connects with fans because of his affable nature and his “everyman” demeanour. He’s a young lad living out his dreams, and in the wake of City’s treble-winning season, he made sure everyone knew that.
It would be going far to call those off-field antics “issues”, but it is then easy to question whether Grealish has done everything he can to make it work at City and live up to his full potential.
So, coming back around to the cost of this deal, there is a risk. Many fans feel it is a gamble worth taking, and the club clearly do, too. Whatever you think of it, Everton have held talks over this move for several months and the budget was clearly there to make it happen.
However, there is another element.
Grealish will come in as Everton’s best outfield player, yet his best role is playing off the left, drifting infield to link the play and make everything work. Everton’s best player, Ndiaye, plays a very similar role, if a little more focused on getting into the box and scoring goals than acting as playmaker-in-chief.
Now, Grealish will play, there is no doubt about it, and it would seem daft to be spending so much on a loan only to then not play the loanee in their best role. So, that would suggest Ndiaye is the player to move.
For much of last season, Ndiaye was stuck out on the left and often isolated, and there was a frustration within the fanbase that he wasn’t being played centrally, especially under Dyche, who deployed a 4411 system that should have suited Ndiaye as the second striker.
So in theory, Ndiaye moving inside, and alternating with Grealish — who has sporadically played as a traditional number 10 before — would be no bad thing, but Everton have just gone out and spent £25m on Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who seems likely to fill that role behind the striker or as an advanced left-sided player in a midfield three. If the latter shape were to be used, then there would be no room for that ‘number 10’ position.
It suggests that Ndiaye may have to move out to the right. It is a position he has played in for Senegal semi-regularly, while he was at times playing on the right of a narrow front three at Sheffield United, but there is a fair concern that such a switch could negate what Ndiaye is best at — and for all of Grealish’s creative quality, when it comes to scoring goals, Ndiaye is a more natural finisher.
This then touches on another issue. Grealish should be the cherry on top for Everton, but the timing of the transfer comes as the Toffees have still failed to address the absolute key needs they had heading into the window — namely at right wing, defensive midfield and full-back.
Now, progress within a transfer window is not linear — deals come to fruition at different times due to many different factors. But when fans see Everton haggling over fees for young right wingers, a position they lack any natural fit for, yet then being happy to commit such big funds to a temporary deal for an older player, one can understand why some eyebrows could be raised.
The above has to be caveated with the fact that there is still time to go in the transfer window — albeit we are into the final 20 days of it. It is clear that Everton are not done yet.
But the reason for Everton’s years of austerity was, at least in part, down to the reckless spending of years gone by, during the early days of Farhad Moshiri’s tenure. They cannot afford to make similar mistakes again, so the onus is on Grealish, and Moyes, to deliver.
In terms of cost if Man City did pay a transfer fee and his wages are 300,000 per week then he costs City 193.6 million over a 6 year contract. That is 32.26 million per year so in fact if Everton have paid just 12 million which includes his wage then this is a bit of a bargain.
If he doesn't perform, the boost to shirt sales, ticket sales and ability to sign other players on the back of signing Grealish will hopefully offset any poor performance.