Who will win the 2024 Ballon d'Or?
The leading candidates will be...
The 2023 Ballon d’Or was awarded on Monday, with Lionel Messi scooping a record-extending eighth accolade.
Few could argue that the little magician wasn’t worthy of being named the world’s best player based on last season’s evidence, with this year’s award given based on the displays in the 2022-23 campaign, during which, of course, Messi dragged Argentina to World Cup glory in Qatar.
It was a fitting reward to Messi, but surely, this Ballon d’Or will be his last. Since 2008, only two players not named Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo have won the accolade — Luka Modric in 2018 and Karim Benzema in 2022.
With Ronaldo and Benzema in Saudi Arabia and Messi in MLS with Inter Miami, then surely — come next year — it will be time for a new era of Ballon d’Or winners.
So, who might claim the crown? Based on the early evidence of this season, More Than A Game takes a look.
KYLIAN MBAPPE
Let’s start with the player who was denied a second World Cup-winners medal by Messi and Co. in Qatar 10 months ago. Mbappe was outstanding for France, with his hat-trick in the final forcing the penalty shoot-out that eventually settled that showpiece match in Argentina’s favour. The 24-year-old won the Golden Boot, but could only watch on as his then-PSG team-mate lifted the ultimate prize.
There was plenty of drama involving Mbappe this past summer. Amid a contract stand-off with PSG, Al Hilal made a mouthwatering offer for the forward. PSG accepted — Mbappe did not.
Eventually, following Neymar’s departure to that very same Saudi club, Mbappe was back in the fold at PSG, who do face the very real prospect of losing their talisman on a free transfer at the end of the campaign.
For Mbappe, Real Madrid surely beckons, but he will still no doubt be wanting to end his PSG career on a high note. That means winning Ligue 1 and finally pushing them towards Champions League glory. The latter seems unlikely, but the Ballon d’Or isn’t just judged on club football, of course.
France are one of the favourites for Euro 2024, and while Mbappe had a shocking tournament at the delayed Euro 2020, he will be the key man for Didier Deschamps once again. There’s also a chance, albeit a slim one, that Mbappe might go on to represent his country at the Paris Olympics — a gold medal wouldn’t go amiss, would it?
With 12 goals from as many games for PSG this season, Mbappe — who hasn’t quite fired on all cylinders just yet — might just get his moment.
JUDE BELLINGHAM
People scoffed at Birmingham City when they retired the No.22 shirt following Bellingham’s departure to Borussia Dortmund in 2022. Not to quote Nigel Farage, here, but “You’re not laughing now, are you?”
Bellingham’s start to life at Real Madrid has, frankly, been ludicrous. The 20-year-old just seems to go up a level week-by-week, and on his Clasico debut, he flipped the match on its head in an instant.
Barcelona had marshalled Bellingham well up until the 68th minute, with youngster Gavi doing a fine job of marking the England international out of the game. But at the moment, it all just feels rather inevitable with Bellingham.
A 30-yard piledriver, swerving beyond Kepa Arrizabalaga and into the right-hand corner, restored parity, and Bellingham then went and won the game with a perfectly timed run and deft finish late on.
Bellingham has already netted 13 goals in 13 matches for Madrid and is LaLiga’s leading scorer. Right now, it’s hard to argue against him being the form player in world football.
If Madrid are to regain the league title and enjoy success in the Champions League this season, then Bellingham will be their talisman. And what of England’s Euro 2024 hopes?
If Bellingham, who won the Kopa Trophy (the award for the best player under the age of 21) on Monday, were to play a starring role in a deep run for the Three Lions — and perhaps even a triumphant one — then surely he would be a shoo-in to become the first English player since Michael Owen in 2001 to scoop the award?
It seems inevitable it will happen eventually, so why not next year?
HARRY KANE
Saturday was the first day this century to see an English player score in at least three of Europe's top four leagues excluding the Premier League. While Jude Bellingham starred in El Clasico, Kane hit a hat-trick — including a stunning effort from inside his own half — in Bayern Munich's 8-0 rout of Darmstadt and Josh Wilson-Esbrand netted for Reims.
Though Wilson-Esbrand is unlikely to feature in the Ballon d'Or voting anytime soon, Kane is certainly worthy of being considered alongside international team-mate Bellingham.
Kane's 12 goals in his first nine Bundesliga appearances is a new competition record, and he also has five assists in the competition already. Overall, the England captain has 21 goal involvements in 13 games for Bayern (14 goals, seven assists).
Bayern may have a fight on their hands to claim a 12th straight domestic title, given Bayer Leverkusen's flying start to 2023-24, but they are always Bundesliga favourites and could emerge as serious Champions League contenders if Thomas Tuchel can fix a temperamental backline.
Should Kane – a former World Cup Golden Boot winner – become the first Three Lions skipper to lift a major trophy since 1966 next summer, the game's top individual prize could be in his sights.
Perhaps we might even see an English top two, should Bellingham maintain his incredible start to life in Spain.
ERLING HAALAND
Having scored 52 goals in 53 appearances in his first season with Manchester City, sending records tumbling as he fired Pep Guardiola's men to the treble, Haaland is perhaps the only player who can feel aggrieved by Messi's latest win.
With the Argentine now plying his trade in MLS, might the Norwegian fancy his chances of being crowned the world's best in 2024?
Despite talk of an underwhelming start to the season, Haaland is actually —fitness-permitting — on target to surpass last season's remarkable exploits.
Sunday's Manchester derby double took Haaland to 11 goals in 10 Premier League outings, putting him on track to break his own single-season record of 36 goals in the competition, while he has also netted twice in the Champions League.
Team success is usually a prerequisite for Ballon d'Or winners, and with City clear favourites to retain their Premier League and Champions League crowns, Haaland is set up for success.
The only thing going against him is Norway's likely absence from Euro 2024, with international tournaments tending to play a huge role come voting season.
Messi, for his part, believes Haaland was particularly unfortunate not to win this year’s prize.
“Haaland and Mbappe will win the Ballon d’Or one day. Erling deserved it very much too, he has won Premier League, Champions League while being the top scorer of everything. This award could have been yours today too. I’m sure in the next years you will win it.”
Lionel Messi
RODRI
Haaland might hog the headlines, but there is a strong case to be made that he is not City's most important player.
Rodri — the scorer of the biggest goal in City's history as they overcame Inter to become European champions in June — is simply irreplaceable for Guardiola.
City have played 13 games with Rodri this season, winning 11 and going to penalties twice, against Arsenal in the Community Shield and Sevilla in the UEFA Super Cup. Their three games without Rodri — against Newcastle United, Wolves and Arsenal — all ended in defeat.
During Rodri's three-match ban, a punishment for a soft red card against Nottingham Forest, City were visibly diminished as an attacking force as Guardiola replaced him by committee, most obviously in a cagey matchup with Arsenal, when Rico Lewis, Mateo Kovacic and Bernardo Silva all played deep midfield roles.
Indeed, the knock-on effect of Rodri's absence hurt Haaland, whose two lowest expected goals (xG) tallies of the Premier League season came in the defeats at Wolves (0.1 xG) and Arsenal (0 xG).
However, 14 of the last 15 Ballons D'or have been won by forwards, with Luka Modric the exception in 2018, so Rodri faces an uphill task.
MOHAMED SALAH
Finally, what about Salah? The Liverpool star has, surprisingly, never featured in the top three of the votes for the Ballon d’Or.
Salah will be 32 by the time the next award rolls around, so it could be his final chance — especially if a huge offer from Saudi Arabia is forthcoming and proves too good for the winger, or Liverpool, to turn down.
While perhaps not at the level he displayed through his first five years in a Liverpool shirt, Salah is still one of Europe’s deadliest forwards.
With eight goals in 10 league games this season, plus a further two in the Europa League, he is finding the net regularly without necessarily scaling the heights we all know he can.
Liverpool not being in the Champions League is likely going to hurt Salah’s chances, but that could all change if the Reds manage to push for the Premier League title.
There’s also the small matter of the Africa Cup of Nations. If Salah drives Egypt to their first title since 2010 — and an eighth overall — then he might just be in consideration.
By Harry Carr and Patric Ridge