The Race Against Relegation
Assessing the state of play in the Premier League relegation scrap.
This is a guest article by
We are into the final 30 days of the 2023-24 Premier League campaign, and there is still plenty to be decided at both ends of the table, with teams running out of time to determine their own destiny.
Wednesday was huge for both the top and the bottom, as Everton dealt the title hopes of their Merseyside rivals Liverpool a potentially fatal blow, while taking a huge stride towards safety themselves.
Sheffield United, meanwhile, went down to Manchester United, meaning they are on the brink of an immediate return to the Championship.
However, none of the relegation places are yet confirmed, so More Than A Game has looked at the state of play at the bottom of the pile.
20TH: SHEFFIELD UNITED
PTS: 16
GD: -59
W3 / D7 / L24
Fixtures remaining: Newcastle United (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Everton (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H)
Many consider Sheffield United to be as good as gone, and you do have to say it would take a monumental effort for Chris Wilder’s team to avoid relegation, which after their defeat to Man United, could be confirmed as early as this weekend, should they lose to Newcastle.
The Blades have leaked goals for fun, particularly at home, and after that 4-2 defeat on Wednesday, they have conceded 92 Premier League goals this season, the most in a 38-game season in the competition's history.
It is not just at the back that United have had issues, mind. It’s been less the Blades, more the Blunts — they are also the league’s lowest scorers, netting just 33 times in 34 games.
Wilder, who was reappointed as Blades’ boss in December, has just not been able to turn their fortunes around, winning only two of his 19 games in charge.
Even with the likes of Ben Brereton Diaz and Oli McBurnie showing glimpses of quality, it just has not been anywhere near enough.
19TH: BURNLEY
PTS: 23
GD: -32
W5 / D8 / L21
Fixtures remaining: Manchester United (A), Newcastle United (H), Tottenham (A), Nottingham Forest (H)
A few weeks ago, you would have said that Vincent Kompany’s Burnley team are done, but recently they have pulled a few results out of the bag to give themselves a fighting chance.
They have lost just one of their last seven games, with that coming against Everton in early April, and with their most recent victory, away at Bramall Lane, they are now within three points of safety.
Kompany’s side has been heavily criticised for their style of play this season, having been labelled naïve. But in the last few weeks, they have rallied and sensed an opportunity.
Goalkeeping errors from Arijanet Muric have cost the Clarets, but they have nevertheless managed to keep within touching distance. That being said, they have what looks like an incredibly difficult run-in, facing Man United, Newcastle and Tottenham before rounding off with what could be a huge game against Nottingham Forest.
We have had some unbelievable relegation survival stories in the Premier League with Brian Robson’s West Brom in 2005, Roy Hodgson’s late Fulham rally in 2008 or Nigel Pearson’s Leicester City in 2015. You could make a case that if Burnley were to survive this season, it may surpass all of the above.
18TH: LUTON TOWN
PTS: 25
GD: -28
W6 / D7 / L21
Fixtures remaining: Wolverhampton Wanderers (A), Everton (H), West Ham (A), Fulham (H)
Luton have been a breath of fresh air to the league, with their tight stadium and a team spirit that Rob Edwards has instilled in his players. The Hatters are hoping to secure back-to-back top-flight seasons for the first time since 1991-92.
Unfortunately, they have hit a sticky patch, winning just one of their last 12 league games, while their last two outings have been 5-1 defeats. While losing to Manchester City is no shame, last week’s defeat to Brentford was a real blow.
They are still just one point adrift of safety, but with the uncertainty surrounding Forest’s appeal against their points deduction, Luton still do not know exactly where they stand.
If they fail to beat Wolves on Saturday, and Everton were to beat Brentford, then the Toffees would be clear, meaning only Forest could be caught. However, Luton do have favourable matches left, including a potentially massive home meeting with Everton on May 3.
They have more than a good chance of staying up, but need to pull themselves together and get out of the current rut that they are in. Shake off the shackles and try again, because they have shown they have the spirit; it is a question of the quality.
17TH: NOTTINGHAM FOREST
PTS: 26* (Deducted four points for a breach of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules, currently under appeal)
GD: -18
W7 / D9 / L18
Fixtures remaining: Manchester City (H), Sheffield United (A), Chelsea (H), Burnley (A)
Off the back of the relegation six-pointer against Everton not going their way, and salacious statements aimed at PGMOL, Forest must now concentrate on controlling the controlables and staying up.
Of course, Forest still have hope of claiming some points back on appeal, but even so, it is in their hands to stay up. With Luton losing on Saturday, the loss to Everton was not too disastrous but a draw could have made a major difference, and they were unlucky, having three major decisions go against them. What will have dented Forest is Everton moving seven point clear by beating Liverpool.
Similarly to the teams in the bottom three, Forest are on a poor run of form under Nuno Espirito Santo. They have just one win in their last nine games. The Forest boss has not been able to have the desired effect, with his team continuing to leak goals, even if the metrics suggest they have been somewhat unlucky in that regard.
Their away form has been awful, but trips to Bramall Lane and Turf Moor simply have to produce positive results. Man City visit The City Ground next, in a daunting prospect for Nuno, but they should not fear Chelsea, who are the final team to rock up on the banks of the Trent this season.
16TH: EVERTON
33 Points* (Deducted eight points for two separate breaches of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules, second charge currently under appeal.)
GD: -16
W11 / D8 / L15
Fixtures remaining: Brentford (H), Luton Town (A), Sheffield United (H), Arsenal (A)
The release of pent-up emotion at Goodison Park as Everton beat Liverpool at home for the first time in 14 years was quite something to witness on Wednesday, as the Toffees took a huge stride towards safety.
If not for the unprecedented deductions, Sean Dyche’s team would be on 41 points and already safe. As it is, they are still one or two results away from guaranteeing their Premier League status.
Goalscoring has been Everton’s main issue. Only Sheff Utd have scored fewer goals than the Toffees (36), this season. But, they have been good defensively, keeping the second-most clean sheets, behind Arsenal.
A three-and-a-half-month winless run between December and April hardly helped the cause, but in they are nearly over the line now.
Dyche has almost achieved the job that he was assigned, and in the circumstances of the ongoing circus that Everton seem to be, that is an achievement to be lauded.
Everton are in the driving seat to extend their record of the most seasons in the top flight of English football, and more importantly go into the last season at Goodison Park in the Premier League.
By Jon Shea