Sevilla v Roma: Europa League final tactical preview
Jose Mourinho has never lost a European final. Sevilla have won the Europa League on six different occasions. Two specialists will go head-to-head, but Alfie Biggs' money’s on The Special One.
Roma and Sevilla meet in the first final of the three UEFA club competitions. The Europa League is up for grabs in Budapest on Wednesday.
Masterful Mourinho
A steady Roma season has been elevated by an impressive European run, similar to last year’s sixth-place finish combined with the success in the European Conference league.
It’s no shock that the basis of play that is implemented by Jose Mourinho is one that focuses on keeping the ball out of Roma’s net. They have conceded the fourth-fewest goals in Serie A, though that is not down to Rui Patricio.
Post-shot expected goals (PSxG) measures how likely a goalkeeper is to save an attempt. Essentially, the higher the number, the better a goalkeeper has performed.
Patricio ranks 42nd out of the 43 goalkeepers to have made a Serie A appearance this season in this statistic, at -6.4. The former Wolves shot-stopper also ranks second for errors resulting in a goal.
But ahead of him, Mourinho has coached an excellent defence.
Due to recent injuries, the reallocation of Bryan Crisante in a three-man defence alongside Roger Ibanez and Gianluca Mancini has worked a treat. Crisante tops Serie A for tackles and Ibanez is second for interceptions, with strong defensive acumen that suits the situational low block that Mourinho implements.
The offensive numbers paint a similar story: Mourinho’s coaching has at times been let down by underperforming players.
When comparing goals scored to xG, a clear pattern emerges – 44 league goals scored (10th in Serie A) from an expected 55.2 (fourth).
Roma’s top goal scorers in Serie A are Paulo Dybala (11), Tammy Abraham (eight) and Stephan El Shaarway (seven) – their goals are evenly spread across the side, and the emphasis on scoring is never down to just on the forwards. Abraham has not lived up to his feats from last season, but has the third-highest xG in Italy’s top flight.
Fundamentally, this Roma side is underperforming and the job that Mourinho has done should not be understated.
Mendilibar’s steady hand
Three coaches, a relegation battle, a Copa Del Rey semi-final and now a European final. Sevilla have had a tumultuous season.
Julen Lopetegui’s race was run. The hiring of Jorge Sampaoli was an interesting move, albeit in hindsight, a poor one.
Jose Luis Mendilibar seems to have bought in some much-needed stability, at least. An experienced coach, who has worked in Spain for 18 years in succession, most notably renowned for his six-year stint at Eibar. Sevilla have clambered their way up LaLiga, only losing twice in their 15 matches under Mendilibar.
A tactically adept coach, an excellent goalkeeper and a clinical striker are the staples of any successful side, especially in knockout football. Sevilla tick every box.
Yassine Bounou has enjoyed a stellar season, including some superb displays for Morocco at the World Cup. His ability to react to the game in front of him is quintessential to the style of play that Mendilibar has instilled.
Bounou’s 1.62 defensive actions outside of the penalty area per 90 is the second highest in LaLiga. Another quality that is necessary due to Sevilla’s set-up is his ball-playing ability, with Bounou registering the fifth-fewest launches (passes longer than 40 yards) in Spain’s top tier.
At the other end of the pitch, another Moroccan – Youssef En-Nesyri – has delivered in key moments. Sevilla’s top scorer this season with eight goals in LaLiga and six in Europe. A consistent shot taker (3.31 per 90), he combines strength with a sharp turn of pace and clever movement. His defensive metrics also stack up well (0.43 tackles in the final third per 90 ranks in the 96th percentile of forwards).
Semi-final analysis: Roma v Bayer Leverkusen (1-0 agg)
In possession
Roma switched into a situational 3-4-3, allowing midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini to join the forward line. Pellegrini has played 69 key passes in Serie A this term, accumulating six expected assists (xA), the fourth-best in the competition. Edoardo Bove occasionally replicates this on the opposite side, but far less regularly.
Leverkusen’s front three acted similarly to how Sevilla’s front four are likely to play, pressing high and suffocating the three central defenders. What the German side lacked, however, was a player to sit on Nemanja Matic, who was excellent in both legs by offering in between the lines to receive the ball and turn out.
This shape also provides Roma’s wing-backs with licence to attack. Leonardo Spinazzola and Pellegrini are without a doubt the main source of creativity, especially when the talented but less tactically suitable Dybala is on the bench. Pellegrini often dropped deep and wide into a more traditional full-back role to receive the ball, while Spinazzola stretched Leverkusen’s back three.
The introduction of Dybala led this in-possession shape to become the natural set-up. Roma matched up with Leverkusen; Dybala and Pellegrini playing off a striker (Abraham). Matic’s ability to find players in dangerous pockets behind the opponent’s midfield (he averages 6.81 progressive passes per 90), and the combination of the two Trequartistas finding space and possessing creative nous, won the first leg, and ultimately the tie.
Out of possession
Roma sat deep and forced Leverkusen to play wide, potentially due to their superiority in the air, but also the Bundesliga side’s quality in advanced central areas. Mourinho’s team did an excellent job at preventing line-splitting passes into Leverkusen’s attackers by packing the midfield.
The four players highlighted in the image above show the general shape Roma used in the first phase of their press: Abraham and Andrea Belotti would allow the centre-backs to carry the ball to a certain point, but constantly prevented passes into the two deeper midfielders. Pelegrini and Bove would aggressively vacate their positions to prevent their opponents from turning if they did manage to receive the ball.
If that first line of the press was beaten, Roma would drop into a 5-3-2/5-4-1 shape, dependant on personnel, and aim to funnel the ball wide, leaving the opposing wing-backs in a one-v-one situation. However, the ball-side central midfielder swiftly came across to close the space.
Semi-final analysis: Sevilla v Juventus (3-2 agg)
In possession
Sevilla deployed a situational 3-1-6 build-up, created by Fernando dropping between the two centre-backs, leaving Ivan Rakitic as a single midfield pivot. This allowed the full-backs and front four to push on, resulting in multiple rotations.
Bryan Gil and Oliver Torres found joy when switching roles, while the wingers and full-backs took turns to hold the width. Gil created space for the underlapping Marcos Acuna by pulling high and wide to drag Juventus’ three-man backline out of position.
This high-risk strategy is dependent on Rakitic’s ability to maintain the ball in tight areas. However, if it’s possible to quickly progress through the thirds, with so many attacking threats in high areas it can prove an incredibly fruitful tactic.
Out of possession
Sevilla’s press against Juventus was truly impressive. A high-risk, high-reward tactic, Mendilibar used his four attackers to create a three-plus-one press – and Juve often failed to cope.
Sevilla’s full-backs often stepped up high onto Juve’s retreating wing-backs, leaving space in behind for Loic Bade and Nemanja Gudelj to cover; fortunately, the centre-backs are comfortable defending out wide. Here is where Bounou’s attributes also dovetail nicely, with his sweeping ability critical to ensuring Sevilla’s high line is not their undoing.
A more worrying issue is a lack of mobility in midfield. A double pivot of 35-year-old Fernando and 35-year-old Rakitic having to cover so much ground does lead to problems if the first line of Sevilla’s press is broken and the full-backs are caught high. Juventus exploited this with the pace of Federico Chiesa and Samuel Iling-Junior.
Sevilla did also drop into a more conservative 4-4-2, with the wingers sinking deeper and Torres supporting En-Nesyri.
Prediction: Roma to win the Europa League
In finals, it’s not always about the strengths of each side, but moreso the weaknesses, and there are clear faults with both of these finalists.
Roma will be happy to concede not only possession but territory, and En-Nesyri could be nullified by a low block, while Spinazola and opposite wing-back Mehmet Zeki Celik might have an abundance of space to break into should Mourinho’s side find a way through Sevilla’s brave, potentially game-winning press.
This writer expects Sevilla to dominate the chances and the ball, but ultimately come up short.
By Alfie Biggs
Great read 👍