Pope's absence hitting Howe hard
Newcastle have plenty of injuries to deal with, but Nick Pope is proving irreplaceable.
Guest contributor Ben Spratt takes a look at Newcastle’s biggest problem.
There has been no shortage of discussion around Newcastle United's injury crisis, but as their poor run continues following defeat at Liverpool on Monday, one particular absence is proving more and more damaging.
Nick Pope is often maligned for his shortcomings, particularly around his distribution, yet his positive attributes were key to Newcastle's brilliant season in 2022-23.
Efficient between the posts and aggressive off his line, Pope arrived from Burnley for a bargain £11million fee in June 2022 and inspired his new side to a fourth-placed finish and Champions League qualification.
A repeat appears highly unlikely this season, however, as Newcastle have fallen badly off the pace in the Premier League since losing Pope to a serious shoulder injury a month ago.
Although Martin Dubravka impressed in Newcastle's 4-2 defeat at Anfield, there was again evidence of the ways in which Newcastle miss Pope and his approach to goalkeeping, which would surely aid a fatigued squad.
Newcastle have fallen off a cliff since Pope was injured against Manchester United at the end of a week in which they won two big league games and were cruelly denied another victory in Paris.
They have only one win in eight since then.
While Pope could/should/would have saved several of the nine goals Newcastle conceded across their next three matches — Dubravka has improved in that sense since then, as was clear last night — there are other, arguably more serious issues.
According to FBref, Newcastle have allowed 19.4 xGA across their past six league games — including their four worst performances since the start of last season (7.1 v Liverpool, 3.8 v Tottenham, 3.5 v Nottingham Forest, 3.3 v Everton). They allowed 14.3 xGA up to and including Man Utd (14 games).
Expected goals are not generally a goalkeeper problem, but Pope was as vital to the prevention of chances as he was to keeping out the subsequent shots.
Eddie Howe’s team play with a high line but a slow defence. It should not work, and it does not work unless you have a genuinely elite elite sweeper keeper – like Pope.
People remember Pope’s red card against Liverpool, his mistake against Wolves, they focus on how poor he is at kicking, how often he kicks the ball into the stands.
But what we’re seeing now is what happens when he isn’t there to do (almost) exactly that.
Only Alisson had more defensive actions outside his box last season than Pope, who also ranks third in the league this season for defensive actions outside his box per 90. He averages more than 2.0 per 90, while Dubravka has four in total across six starts.
Pope’s defensive actions are 19.8 yards from goal on average (outside the box), while Dubravka’s are 12.1 yards from goal (around the penalty spot).
The below screengrab of the build-up to the penalty that led to Liverpool’s fourth goal against Newcastle on New Year’s Day shows the issue: As Diogo Jota controls the ball, Dubravka is out of shot. He eventually challenges him on the penalty spot.
There is a huge space now between Newcastle’s slow — and very tired — defensive line and their goalkeeper. So, so many of the chances and goals they conceded in the 3-2 loss to Forest and then the defeat to Liverpool came through passes into that space.
It also isn’t a coincidence Newcastle had not conceded a penalty before Pope was injured this season and have since conceded three — including two, harshly or otherwise, from challenges by Dubravka.
It might seem a strange conversation to have after Dubravka’s performance at Anfield, but of all the possible options to strengthen in the January transfer window, Newcastle should look to sign a new goalkeeper. For now, it would of course be to stand in for Pope, but down the line, to compete with the former Burnley shot-stopper.
The problem is they need a goalkeeper like Pope, and that is far easier said than done.
By Ben Spratt