Monday Musing: No home comforts for Dyche
Is it a case of do or die for Sean Dyche?
Sean Dyche celebrated his 500th game as a manager in style last week.
His Everton side, set up well in a 3-4-3 shape — not Dyche’s typical formation — had picked off Aston Villa in the EFL Cup. Only a fortunate goal from Boubacar Kamara, whose strike deflected in off Michael Keane, gave Unai Emery’s team any hope in a match that ultimately finished 2-1, with Everton the deserved winners.
That match at Villa Park came four days after a superb performance at Brentford, where his side picked up their first Premier League win of the campaign. Whereas the game plan at Villa was definitely to counter-attack, Everton simply outthought and outfought Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium. They were better in all areas of the pitch, and a 3-1 victory was the least they deserved.
But if the 499th and 500th games of Dyche’s managerial career had showed everything he is good at, then the 501st match exposed every flaw and all the limitations in the former Burnley and Watford boss’ approach.
Luton Town’s first point in the league came last week, when they fought back to draw 1-1 at home with 10-man Wolves. Yet on Saturday at Goodison Park, the Hatters claimed their maiden Premier League win, and Everton suffered their fourth straight home loss.
It is only the second time in club history that they have lost all of their opening four home matches of a season, and the first time since 1958-59.
It is grim reading for Evertonians. And Dyche. And this is not a one-off; it has become a pattern.
Since he took over at the end of January, Dyche has overseen just four home wins from 15 games at Goodison Park. Two of those came in his opening two such matches — against Arsenal and Leeds United; one came in March, with Dwight McNeil’s first-minute goal enough to see off Brentford; the fourth one came on the final day of last season, the 1-0 victory over Bournemouth to keep Everton in the Premier League.
Everton have lost seven of their last eight home games, and it is hardly like they have played many of the top dogs.
EVERTON’S HOME RECORD UNDER DYCHE
Games: 13
Wins: 4
Draws: 1
Defeats: 8
Goals For: 7
Goals Against: 18
Indeed, Arsenal (one of the four teams to win at Goodison this season), Newcastle United and Manchester City aside, Everton arguably went into each of the other five matches in that run as favourites. And there is simply no excuse for Everton losing to Luton, Wolves and Fulham on home turf, as they have done already in 2023-24.
Stretching back to the dismal end of Frank Lampard’s tenure, Everton have lost 13 of their 19 home games.
Away from home, Dyche at least seems to have found a formula to pick up points. Everton are able to thrive on the space handed to them by opponents, but at home, when the onus is on the Toffees to provide the composure to finish off spells of pressure, they are badly lacking.
Everton had the better chances against Fulham and Wolves, but came unstuck due to poor finishing and sloppy defending.
Dyche attempted to paint a picture of it being the same old story against Luton, and in fairness there was certainly an element of predictability to it all. Yet unlike against Fulham and Wolves, when Everton conceded late on, this time they had over an hour to fix things. But after Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s scrappy goal just before half-time, the Toffees offered nothing of note, and Dyche’s attempts to fix things simply made things worse.
The positive signs had certainly been there in the first half, and in the first 20 minutes especially. McNeil sent a dipping volley inches wide; Amadou Onana curled off target and Idrissa Gueye somehow managed to shoot in completely the wrong direction with half of the goal gaping.
But Luton settled into the game and stuck to their plan. Everton seemingly give away set-pieces for fun under Dyche, and Luton exploited that. The Hatters also exploited some truly terrible organisation from such situations.
It is a small sample size, of course, but Everton have now conceded the joint-most goals in the Premier League from set-piece situations this season, while their xGA from such scenarios is the seventh-poorest in the division, at 2.7.
The warning signs were there when Tom Lockyer got free from a corner only to head over. Everton did not react, and an outswinging delivery soon after saw Carlton Morris head goalwards, with only James Tarkowski’s block sending the ball out of play. Another corner, and this time Luton got their reward — static marking enabled an attacker to get free, and after getting fortunate with a ricochet off the bar, Everton found themselves behind when Ashely Young made a complete hash of what should have been a simple clearance.
Seven minutes later, another set-piece. Once again it was conceded in daft circumstances, with Onana and Tarkowski combining to foul a player who was going nowhere fast. While bad fortune might have played a part in Young’s error for Luton’s opener, their second goal was a disasterclass in organisation from a manager and coaching team that are meant to get the basics like this right, and Morris was left in acres of space to tuck home at the back post.
Then came Everton’s response. Huffing and puffing, they eventually bundled the ball over through Calvert-Lewin, not long after James Garner had hit the crossbar from a header he should have sent into the back of the net.
There was some momentum heading into half-time, but Dyche’s attempts to remedy the situation proved futile. Everton failed to get a shot on target in the second half, mustering 0.65 xG. Their overall total for the game stood at 2.89, showing just how impotent the Toffees were after the break.
Michael Greenall pointed out Dyche’s “rushed” approach to the second half. And while this writer feels that attacking substitutes were needed, the lack of a suitable tactical plan to service the likes of Beto, Jack Harrison and Arnaut Danjuma was painfully clear.
Michael added: “Gut feeling is that we were unlucky with both goals conceded yesterday but then did not help ourselves when chasing it. In isolation, it's not a game that points to panic, but the home form overall is pathetic at this point. [Fingers crossed] the next few games suit us more.”
Ultimately, though, this is very much ‘Dycheball’.
Yes, Dyche would not want such an ineffective attack as the one in the second half; that is nobody’s idea of a plan, least of all the manager. But his approach to chasing games swiftly becomes predictable. And at home, Everton are switching off with far too much regularity defensively — so the likelihood is, they are going to end up chasing the game at some point.
Everton are creating chances, of course, but these opportunities are too often falling to defenders or midfielders — and while those players should do far better, the lack of composure and quality in those key moments is glaring. Dyche speaks of “changing the story”, but then simultaneously points to issues that started and have dragged on since before his time at Goodison.
Those excuses cannot wash. He has been in position long enough to impact meaningful change — indeed, the performances on the road are evidence of that. But at home, when the pressure is really on against arguably inferior opposition, the limitations to his approach are obvious; there is nothing so far in his 501-game career to suggest that is going to change.
Luton boss Rob Edwards said at full-time: “I don't want this to come across as arrogant, but I really fancied us today. I really believed we could come here and win.”
That is the issue in a nutshell. No team, no matter their situation or quality, are scared of going to Goodison. No side will not fancy their chances. It is Dyche’s job to change that, and in his eight months at the club so far, he has failed spectacularly at that task.
Dyche has his critics — and his backers. This is not a piece to suggest that another manager could guarantee more success. There is also the small matter of the club being so financially restricted that there may not be even any funds available to part ways with another set of coaches.
But, should Everton lose to Bournemouth on Saturday, then how can anybody really argue that — heading into an international break — they can afford not to make a change?
Josh Wanda and Steven Pasko, the big bosses at 777 Partners, were in attendance at Goodison Park for the defeat to Luton. The speculation is that Everton’s would-be new owners (should they pass the many tests that stand in their way of completing the takeover) are satisfied enough with Dyche, but their patience will only go on so long.
If they are to spend £500million on securing a Premier League team to become the crown jewel in their multi-club structure, then they will want to ensure Everton remain a Premier League side. For that to happen, the home form must improve drastically.
Dyche has shown, in flashes, that he still has plenty to offer in top-flight management in 2023. But those flashes are becoming too few and far between. Everton have already let four of 19 home games this season pass them by, with three of those coming against sides many observers would not bet against to be finishing firmly in the bottom half come May.
Dyche’s managerial buzzwords of “feel”, “alignment” and such are already wearing thin. If he really wants to “change the story”, then he needs to find a way to change whatever the plan is at home.
If Dyche does not do that, then he cannot lay any reasonable claim of being the right author for this particular chapter of Everton’s long history.
By Patric Ridge
Patric is a data journalist at Stats Perform and is a regular contributor to Toffee TV and Opta Analyst, while he has attended high-profile events including the UEFA Super Cup and 2022 FIFA World Cup.
(Follow: @PatricRidge)
