Monday Musing
Everton need Branthwaite back, Gunners claim derby bragging rights and Haaland closes in on City century.
The Premier League provided more intrigue, drama and chaos over the weekend, and here we delve into three of the weekend’s key talking points.
BRANTHWAITE TO THE RESCUE?
When it rains at Everton, it pours, and the pressure from fans is certainly growing on Sean Dyche.
Another 2-0 lead blown, another 3-2 defeat — this time to Aston Villa, as Everton became the first team in Premier League history to be leading 2-0 only to then lose 3-2 in two successive matches.
Dwight McNeil and Dominic Calvert-Lewin had the Toffees two to the good at Villa Park on Saturday, but Ollie Watkins’ double and Jhon Duran’s screamer compounded the visitors to a fourth straight defeat to start the season.
No matter how anybody tries to dress it up, it is bleak, and Dyche has plenty of questions to answer. He is compounding player mistakes and weaknesses, and the structure of the team is all wrong.
Last season, Everton had the fourth-best defence in the league in terms of goals conceded, with 51 (1.3 per game on average). This term, they have already shipped 13 (3.25 per match) — and it is not like they have been unfortunate in doing so.
Their expected goals against (xGA) — per Understat — is the worst in the league, at 10.52. Whereas at the start of last year, the expected points (xPTS) metric had them high up the league, this year they are down in 19th. It is a small sample size, but it is incredibly damning.
And it’s not a new thing, either. Since a run of four straight wins in December last year, Everton have played 25 Premier League matches — they have won just five of them.
Dyche, frankly, should be under internal pressure, but whether the rudderless leadership at Everton has the authority or conviction to make a change, or will hold their nerve, remains to be seen. The former Burnley boss has had trying circumstances to deal with, which has earned him credit in the bank, but excuses are wearing thin.
One thing that could turn the tide for Everton, and Dyche, is the impending return of centre-back Jarrad Branthwaite. The youngster, who Everton were desperate to keep this summer, had minor groin surgery over the summer, but is now back in training.
It is fair to say, he has been badly missed. While the Everton boss can point to some missed opportunities from attackers, it is in defence that the issues are mainly arising. Dyche’s bizarre reluctance to use Jake O’Brien and instead stand by Michael Keane, has played into essentially giving teams a three-goal head start, and it has exposed a worrying reliance on Branthwaite, too.
For all the rhetoric around Dyche’s defensive solidity, looking over his Everton tenure, it is perhaps fair to suggest that Branthwaite has been the real difference-maker.
The numbers make this clear.
Everton under Dyche, with Branthwaite
Games — 35
Wins — 12 (34.3%)
Goals Against — 46 (1.3 avg)
Everton under Dyche, without Branthwaite
Games — 24
Wins — 6 (25%)
Goals Against — 44 (1.8 avg)
*Premier League only
Branthwaite is 22. A brilliant prospect and already one of the league’s best defenders, but one that is coming back off an injury and still only has one year of consistent Premier League appearances under his belt. For such a supposedly defensively sound manager to be so reliant on one player, is another concern, and another question for Dyche to find an answer to.
All hope is certainly not lost, but matters must swiftly improve.
HAALAND ONE OFF
A little over two years into his Manchester City career, and Erling Haaland is already on the brink of 100 goals for the club.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to More Than A Game to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.